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November 10 转帖,以此来追忆鲁迅先生】那个叫鲁迅的终于TM从教科书里滚蛋了文风很犀利啊!
近来,由于人民教育出版社在新版语文教材中逐步剔除鲁迅的文章,引来一片争议,赞者有之,阻者有之。而笔者认为,在近年来对鲁迅话题经历了沉默、回避、冷淡的过程后,现在让其滚蛋,已经是时候了。 鲁迅之所以滚蛋,是因为那些曾经被其攻击、痛斥、讥讽、怜悯的人物又一次复活了,鲁迅的存在,让他们感到恐惧、惊慌、卑怯,甚至无地自容。 看看: 孔乙己们复活了。并且以一篇《‘茴’字有四种写法》的论文,晋级为教授、学者、国学大师;也不再提心吊胆地“窃书”了,而是平心静气地在网络上“窃文”了;不仅可以舒坦地“温一碗洒”,而且还能以其博导的诱惑力对“伊”来一把潜规则了,他岂能让鲁迅揭了他前世的底?! “资本家的乏走狗”们复活了。尽管它们披上了精英、专家的外衣,但依然“看到所有的富人都驯良,看到所有的穷人都狂吠”,他们或装神弄鬼地玩弄数字游戏,鼓吹物价与美国接轨、工资与非洲接轨的必然性与合理性;或干脆作了外国人欺诈中国的“乏走狗”,与其里应外合、巧取豪夺。它们岂容鲁迅再一次把它打入水中?! 赵贵翁、赵七爷、康大叔、红眼阿义、王胡、小D们复活了。有的混入警察队伍,有的当上了联防队员、***。披上制服兴奋得他们脸上“横肉块块饱绽”,手执 “无形的丈八蛇矛”,合理合法地干起了敲诈勒索,*良为*的勾当。如果姓夏那小子在牢里不规矩,不用再“给他两个嘴巴”,令其“躲猫猫”足矣。想想,这些下做的勾当儿怎能让鲁迅这种尖刻的小人评说?! 阿Q们复活了。从土古祠搬到了网吧,但其振臂一呼的口号已经不是“老子革命了!”而是“老子***了!”每天做梦都盼着“白盔白甲”的美国海军陆战队早一天杀过来,在中国建立***。因为只要美国的“***”一到,赵七爷家的钱财、吴妈、秀才老婆乃至未庄的所有女人就都是我的了!哼!而鲁迅却偏偏要我做个被世人嘲讽了数十年的冤死鬼,我岂能容你?! 假洋鬼子们复活了。这回干脆入了外籍,成了真洋鬼子。并且人模狗样儿地一窝锋地钻进“爱国大片”的剧组,演起了凛然正气、忧国忧民的仁人志士,让人好生不舒服。此种一边哽咽着颂扬祖国母亲,一边往向征中华文明的青铜大鼎里撒尿的举动,岂不是鲁迅杂文中的绝好素材?! 祥林嫂、华老栓、润土们复活了。他们依然逆来顺受,情绪稳定。因为“这人肉的筵宴现在还排着,有许多人还想一直排下去”,这样,必须要备足了餐料。而那些准备做餐料的人,本来可以闷在铁屋子里,一边听着小沈阳的笑话,一边麻木地死去,岂容鲁迅把他们唤醒,再一次经历烈火焚身的苦痛?! 那些“体格茁壮的看客们”复活了。他们兴致勃勃地围观那些“拳打弱女”、“棒杀老翁”、“少年溺水”、“飞身坠楼”的精彩瞬间,依旧“颈项都伸得很长,仿佛许多鸭,被无形的手捏住了的,向上提着”。哈哈,仅看客一类,被你伤害的人就太多了,因为中国人几乎都愿做看客! 鲁迅之所以滚蛋,是因为当今的社会不需要“投枪和匕首”,而需要赞歌、脂粉、麻药。正如陈丹青先生讲的“假如鲁迅精神指的是怀疑、批评和抗争,那么,这种精神不但丝毫没有被继承,而且被空前成功地铲除了。我不主张继承这种精神,因为谁也继承不了、继承不起,除非你有两条以上性命,或者,除非你是鲁迅同时代的人。最稳妥的办法是取鲁迅精神的反面:沉默、归顺、奴化,以至奴化得珠圆玉润”。 如果鲁迅赶上这个时代,对于“开胸验肺”、“以身试药”、“周公拍虎”、“黑窑奴工”、“处女卖*”、“官员嫖幼”等一系列奇闻,又会写出多少辛辣犀利、锥骨入髓、令人拍案叫绝的杂文来,想想,真是让人后怕,所幸这个尖酸刻薄的小人已不在人世了。 让我们彻底赶走鲁迅,欢迎“小沈阳”,让人们在开心笑声中忘却现实的不公和苦痛,在笑声中渐渐地麻木、渐渐地变傻...... July 13 我本将心寄明月哈哈,大家都知道这句话吧,天下无贼。昨天下午,师兄一个短信召唤,我们师兄弟5-6人赶回人大参加了当年明月的讲座,当时导师也在,可能不少师兄弟也是想和导师打个照面。
这个讲座是针对在职MPA班的讲座,明月也是人大新近的MPA学生,很多人从各种渠道看过他的书,这次来看,也多是目睹其人。
明月开头就提出,要讲点有意义的东西,但是满篇讲座下来,没有听到多少有意义的字眼。他可能忽视了,台下的观众们大多是有着一定阅历的公务员,还有零零散散的几个博士吧。见过的场面不算不多,但是连忽悠带扯淡的风格,也就是能在无知者面前摆一摆谱罢了。
明月是我的同龄人,相差年岁不过1-2岁。在我当年醉心于军事科技的时候,明月也醉心于明史,可能他把明史,明实录都读遍了。用一个略微稚嫩的价值判断,写出了调侃风格的明朝那些事,迎合了不少年轻读者的阅读兴趣,一股新史学扑面而来。
但是通篇讲座里面,明月反复强调的几个主题词,或多或少的都被我们这些人所知道,我甚至感觉,他的一些阅历和经验甚至不如台下我的某些师兄们。但是不容否认,他仍是同龄人中的佼佼者。感到庆幸的是,我的一些感悟和明月是类似的,摘录如下:
1,谦受益,满招损。为人不能太骄横,几千年了,还是枪打出头鸟。 2,感谢困难与磨难。温水煮青蛙的故事大家都明白,艰苦和磨难是人生最有益的教科书。 3,人要有信仰。信仰能给人带来最大的鼓动力和忍耐力,有志者,事竟成。 4,有德,也要有术。以德服人,以术御人。纷繁复杂的社会中,任何一个极端都会是牺牲品。 5,人要不断学习,不停思考。
当然了,我并不同意他的一些观点,摘录如下:
1,这个世界是操蛋的。明月不止一次的这么表述。我想起了太祖的话,与天斗,其乐无穷,与地斗,其乐无穷,与人斗,其乐无穷。只有我们满怀希望,展望未来时,生活或许才充满色彩。 2,美国很傻X。这句话有道理,但是也说明他没有怎么了解美国,我们要学美国什么?
我并不喜欢明月这种调侃江山,玩世不恭的态度,或许我被某些东西侵染的太多了吧。 June 26 收拾东西的发现 在京读书十余年,身边值钱的东西没几样,倒是留下一堆破烂,今天搬家,统统翻腾出来了。找出几样好玩的。 1,中国金融学院的信笺和信纸。当年满怀信心踏入金融学院,毕业时学校已灰飞湮灭。摘校牌时候年纪尚小,觉得融入贸大还很荣耀,都不知道去留一张合影。合并一所大学容易,再建立一个金融学院何其之难。现在好像上海要建新的金融学院,可是已经再也没有老金融学院的痕迹。 2, 货币银行学的课本,金融学复习参考大纲。五道口是当年大家的梦想,小小的金融学院竟然有几十个人要报考五道口,中国金融的黄埔军校,而考上者若过江之鲫, 屈指可数。现在都已经不知去向。虽然我没有报考五道口,但是复习期间,熟读了高鸿业的西方经济学,还曾经为流动性陷阱和沉没成本等问题闹得你死我活,现在 只留下淡然一笑。 3,上海财经的企业管理和市场营销。大学时候不知道脑袋怎么被门夹了,非得去搞个管理的研究生。苦读管理书籍,结果成了 这个德行,现在想甩开管理都难。上财的企管和营销并不很强,可是就偏偏迷上了它。由这两本入门教材,后来读了不下10个版本的管理学内容,自觉没意思,放 弃。 4,物资学院的入党培训书籍。到了物资学院,好像干的最多的就是学生工作。培训入党积极分子。在那个流放地,反倒踏踏实实读了2年书,弥补了本科的缺憾。现在这些书籍就留下一本共产党宣言,其他统统仍进了垃圾堆。 5.留下来的几本大学课本。微积分,线代和概率论,还有马哲。还有一些金融学的课本。竟然没有一本会计,说真心话,现在会计是一点点都不会了。完全还给老师啦。 6, 金融学院的枕巾,还有标号408。物资学院的毛毯,赫然印着学校名字。经贸大学的信签纸。学生吗,总是挺节省,枕巾毛毯用了好些年。洗干净了还舍不得丢 掉,放着吧。以后给后人做纪念。告诉他们,当年在北京求学的艰苦。人大的宿舍是一点东西都没发给我们,整套的被褥都是从物资背过来了,用了6年了,也该扔 掉啦。 还没收拾完,已经堆了2大箱子书了,照这个架势,起码还有4个箱子的书。亏得现在资讯发达,好些资料都有电脑保存。要不真够拉一面包车的书拉。 May 12 Social Security and Medicare finances worsen, ZZBy MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer Martin Crutsinger, Ap Economics Writer WASHINGTON – The financial health of Social Security and Medicare, the government's two biggest benefit programs, have worsened because of the severe recession, and Medicare is now paying out more than it receives. Trustees of the programs said Tuesday that Social Security will start paying out more in benefits than it collects in taxes in 2016, one year sooner than projected last year, and the giant trust fund will be depleted by 2037, four years sooner. Medicare is in even worse shape. The trustees said the program for hospital expenses will pay out more in benefits than it collects this year and will be insolvent by 2017, two years earlier than the date projected in last year's report. The trust funds — which exist in paper form in a filing cabinet in Parkersburg, W.Va. — are bonds that are backed by the government's "full faith and credit" but not by any actual assets. That money has been spent over the years to fund other parts of government. To redeem the trust fund bonds, the government would have to borrow in public debt markets or raise taxes. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, the head of the trustees group, said the new reports were a reminder that "the longer we wait to address the long-term solvency of Medicare and Social Security, the sooner those challenges will be upon us and the harder the options will be." Geithner said that President Barack Obama was committed to working with Congress to find ways to control runaway growth in both public and private health care expenditures, noting the promise Monday by major health care providers to trim costs by $2 trillion over the next decade. However, Republicans pointed to the newly dire assessments as evidence the Obama administration has failed to come forward with actual entitlement reform to close the funding gaps. "Instead of getting existing public programs in order right now, some are saying we should create a new government-run health insurance plan," Sen. Chuck Grassley, the top Republican on the Finance Committee, said in a reference to the administration's health care proposals. "When we can't afford the public health plan we have already, does it make sense to add more?" House Republican leader John Boehner said the trustees report "confirms what we already knew: Our nation cannot afford to continue this reckless borrowing and spending spree." The findings in the trustees report, the annual checkup given the two benefit programs, did not come as a surprise. Private economists had been predicting that the dates the programs would begin to pay out more than they take in and the dates the trust funds would be insolvent would occur sooner given the economic recession. The deep recession, the worst the country has endured in decades, has resulted in a loss of 5.7 million jobs since it began in December 2007. The unemployment rate hit a 25-year high of 8.9 percent in April. Fewer people working means less being paid into the trust funds for Social Security and Medicare. The Congressional Budget Office recently projected that Social Security will collect just $3 billion more in 2010 than it will pay out in benefits. A year ago, the CBO had projected that Social Security would have a much higher $86 billion cash surplus for the 2010 budget year, which begins Oct. 1. The trustees report projected that Social Security's annual surpluses would "fall sharply this year," then remain at a reduced level in 2010 and be lower in the following years than last year's projections. The report said that the Social Security annual surplus would be eliminated entirely in 2016, reflecting increased demands from the wave of 78 million baby boomers retiring. That means Social Security will have to turn to its trust fund to make up the difference between Social Security taxes and the benefits being paid out beginning in 2016. The trustees projected the trust fund would be depleted in 2037, four years earlier than the 2041 date in last year's report. At that point, the annual Social Security taxes collected would be enough to pay for three-fourths of current benefits through 2083. To tap the trust fund, the government would have to increase borrowing or raise taxes because Social Security bonds exist only as bookkeeping entries. While the government is obligated to redeem those bonds, it has already spent the excess Social Security collections over the years to fund general government operations, providing the trust funds with IOUs. While the smaller surpluses that will begin this year will not have any impact on Social Security benefit payments, the government will need to borrow more at a time when the federal deficit is already exploding because of the recession and the billions of dollars being spent to prop up a shaky banking system. Medicare's condition is more precarious, reflecting the pressures from soaring health care costs as well as the drop in tax collections. Obama on Monday praised the pledge by the health care industry to achieve $2 trillion in savings on health care costs over the next decade, but it was unclear how much help those pledges would be in achieving Obama's goal of extending coverage to some 50 million uninsured Americans. The administration is pushing Congress to pass legislation in this area this year, preferring to tackle health care before Social Security. The trustees report is likely to set off renewed debate over Social Security and Medicare. Critics have charged that the Obama administration has failed to tackle the most serious problems in the budget — soaring entitlement spending. The administration on Monday revised its federal deficit forecasts upward to project an imbalance this year of $1.84 trillion, four times last year's record, and said the deficits will remain above $500 billion every year over the next decade. May 11 猪流感没准是制药公司造的。今天凌晨两点,被拽上救护车,拉到了这。同车的是个中科院从美国回来的。我们一起坐的美西北到的北京。 这个人就说,没准这个流感就是制药公司干的。 原因有这些: 1,美国国内基本不宣传。报纸上基本没有防控方面的新闻,机场安检等于零。为了防恐怖分子需要拖鞋脱皮带,但是连个最简陋的测温仪都没见到。 2,只有美国的药能治病,达菲。美国因此能赚很多钱。 3,猪流感发病很奇特,主要感染的人群是青壮年,20-40岁之间的,而这些人体格都很健康的。以往的发病都是老人小孩,这次是青壮年很奇特。 4,病毒很怪异。是猪,人,禽流感的三结合。自然界很难变异出这么怪的病毒,没准是实验室的成果。 5,美国药厂投资了禽流感很多钱,可是没爆发起来,白费了,赔了不少,通过猪流感,准备翻本。 April 30 SOCIAL SECURITY:The Biggest Ponzi Scheme on Earth .Friedman
The conventional wisdom regarding Social Security is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of how the system does—and does not—work. Nobel laureate and Hoover fellow Milton Friedman explains why it is time to end Social Security as we know it. The journalist Michael Barone recently summed up the conventional wisdom about reforming Social Security: “The content of the reform is fairly clear—individual investment accounts to replace part of the government benefits financed by the payroll tax, later retirement ages, adjusted cost of living increases,” he wrote. And, he added, “suddenly the money to pay for the costs of transition is at hand, in the form of a budget surplus.” I have italicized “part” and “costs of transition” because they epitomize key defects in conventional wisdom. Social Security has become less and less attractive as the number of current recipients has grown relative to the number of workers paying taxes, an imbalance that will only get bigger. That explains the widespread support for individual investment accounts. Younger workers, in particular, are skeptical that they will get anything like their money’s worth for the Social Security taxes that they and their employers pay. They believe they would do much better if they could invest the money in their own 401(k) or the equivalent. But if that is so, why replace only part and not all of government benefits? The standard explanation is that this is not feasible because payroll taxes—or part of them—are needed to pay benefits already committed to present and future retirees. That is how they are now being used, but there is nothing in the nature of things that requires a particular tax to be linked to a particular expenditure. The link between the payroll tax and benefit payments is part of a confidence game to convince the public that what the Social Security Administration calls a social insurance program is equivalent to private insurance, in that, in the Administration’s words, “the workers themselves contribute to their own future retirement benefit by making regular payments into a joint fund.” Balderdash. Taxes paid by today’s workers are used to pay today’s retirees. If money is left over, it finances other government spending—though, to maintain the insurance fiction, paper entries are created in a “trust fund” that is simultaneously an asset and a liability of the government. When the benefits that are due exceed the proceeds from payroll taxes, as they will in the not very distant future, the difference will have to be financed by raising taxes, borrowing, creating money, or reducing other government spending. And that is true no matter how large the “trust fund.” The assurance that workers will receive benefits when they retire does not depend on the particular tax used to finance the benefits or on any “trust fund.” It depends solely on the expectation that future Congresses will honor promises made by earlier Congresses—what supporters call “a compact between the generations” and opponents call a Ponzi scheme. The present discounted value of the promises embedded in the Social Security law greatly exceeds the present discounted value of the expected proceeds from the payroll tax. The difference is an unfunded liability variously estimated at from $4 trillion to $11 trillion—or from slightly larger than the funded federal debt that is in the hands of the public to three times as large. For perspective, the market value of all domestic corporations in the United States at the end of 1997 was roughly $13 trillion. To see the phoniness of “transition costs” (the supposed net cost of privatizing the current Social Security system), consider the following thought experiment: As of January 1, 2000, the current Social Security system is repealed. To meet current commitments, every participant in the system will receive a government obligation equal to his or her actuarial share of the unfunded liability. For those already retired, that would be an obligation—a Treasury bill or bond—with a market value equal to the present actuarial value of expected future benefits minus expected future payroll taxes, if any. For everyone else, it would be an obligation due when the individual would have been eligible to receive benefits under the current system. And the maturity value would equal the present value of the benefits the person would have been entitled to, less the present value of the person’s future tax liability, both adjusted for mortality. The result would be a complete transition to a strictly private system, with every participant receiving what the current law promises. Yet, aside from the cost of distributing the new obligations, the total funded and unfunded debt of the United States would not change by a dollar. There are no “costs of transition.” The unfunded liability would simply have become funded. The compact between the generations would have left as a legacy the newly funded debt. How would that funded debt be paid when it comes due? By taxing, borrowing, creating money, or reducing other government spending. There are no other ways. There is no more reason to finance the repayment of this part of the funded debt by a payroll tax than any other part. Yet that is the implicit assumption of those who argue that the “costs of transition” mean there can be only partial privatization. The payroll tax is a bad tax: a regressive tax on productive activity. It should long since have been repealed. Privatizing Social Security would be a good occasion to do so. Should a privatized system be mandatory? The present system is; it is therefore generally taken for granted that a privatized system must or should be as well. The economist Martin Feldstein, in a 1995 article in the Public Interest, argued that contributions must be mandatory for two reasons: “First, some individuals are too shortsighted to provide for their own retirement,” he wrote. “Second, the alternative of a means-tested program for the aged might encourage some lower-income individuals to make no provision for their old age deliberately, knowing that they would receive the means-tested amount.” The paternalism of the first reason and the reliance on extreme cases of the second are equally unattractive. More important, Professor Feldstein does not even refer to the clear injustice of a mandatory plan. The most obvious example is a person with AIDS, who has a short life expectancy and limited financial means, yet would be required to use a significant fraction of his or her earnings to accumulate what is almost certain to prove a worthless asset. More generally, the fraction of a person’s income that it is reasonable for her or him to set aside for retirement depends on that person’s circumstances and values. It makes no more sense to specify a minimum fraction for all people than to mandate a minimum fraction of income that must be spent on housing or transportation. Our general presumption is that individuals can best judge for themselves how to use their resources. Mr. Feldstein simply asserts that in this particular case the government knows better. In 1964, Barry Goldwater was much reviled for suggesting that participation in Social Security be voluntary. I thought that was a good idea then; I still think it is. I find it hard to justify requiring 100 percent of the people to adopt a government-prescribed straitjacket to avoid encouraging a few “lower-income individuals to make no provision for their old age deliberately, knowing that they would receive the means-tested amount.” I suspect that, in a voluntary system, many fewer elderly people would qualify for the means-tested amount from imprudence or deliberation than from misfortune. I have no illusions about the political feasibility of moving to a strictly voluntary system. The tyranny of the status quo and the vested interests that have been created are too strong. I believe, however, that the ongoing discussion about privatizing Social Security would benefit from paying more attention to fundamentals rather than dwelling simply on the nuts and bolts of privatization. Reprinted with minor editorial changes from the New York Times, January 11, 1999, from an article entitled “Social Security Chimeras.” Reprinted by permission. Available from the Hoover Press is The Essence of Friedman, a volume of essays by the Nobel laureate economist. Also available is Facing the Age Wave, David Wise, editor. To The conventional wisdom regarding Social Security is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of how the system does—and does not—work. Nobel laureate and Hoover fellow Milton Friedman explains why it is time to end Social Security as we know it.
The journalist Michael Barone recently summed up the conventional wisdom about reforming Social Security: “The content of the reform is fairly clear—individual investment accounts to replace part of the government benefits financed by the payroll tax, later retirement ages, adjusted cost of living increases,” he wrote. And, he added, “suddenly the money to pay for the costs of transition is at hand, in the form of a budget surplus.” I have italicized “part” and “costs of transition” because they epitomize key defects in conventional wisdom. Social Security has become less and less attractive as the number of current recipients has grown relative to the number of workers paying taxes, an imbalance that will only get bigger. That explains the widespread support for individual investment accounts. Younger workers, in particular, are skeptical that they will get anything like their money’s worth for the Social Security taxes that they and their employers pay. They believe they would do much better if they could invest the money in their own 401(k) or the equivalent. But if that is so, why replace only part and not all of government benefits? The standard explanation is that this is not feasible because payroll taxes—or part of them—are needed to pay benefits already committed to present and future retirees. That is how they are now being used, but there is nothing in the nature of things that requires a particular tax to be linked to a particular expenditure. The link between the payroll tax and benefit payments is part of a confidence game to convince the public that what the Social Security Administration calls a social insurance program is equivalent to private insurance, in that, in the Administration’s words, “the workers themselves contribute to their own future retirement benefit by making regular payments into a joint fund.” Balderdash. Taxes paid by today’s workers are used to pay today’s retirees. If money is left over, it finances other government spending—though, to maintain the insurance fiction, paper entries are created in a “trust fund” that is simultaneously an asset and a liability of the government. When the benefits that are due exceed the proceeds from payroll taxes, as they will in the not very distant future, the difference will have to be financed by raising taxes, borrowing, creating money, or reducing other government spending. And that is true no matter how large the “trust fund.” The assurance that workers will receive benefits when they retire does not depend on the particular tax used to finance the benefits or on any “trust fund.” It depends solely on the expectation that future Congresses will honor promises made by earlier Congresses—what supporters call “a compact between the generations” and opponents call a Ponzi scheme. The present discounted value of the promises embedded in the Social Security law greatly exceeds the present discounted value of the expected proceeds from the payroll tax. The difference is an unfunded liability variously estimated at from $4 trillion to $11 trillion—or from slightly larger than the funded federal debt that is in the hands of the public to three times as large. For perspective, the market value of all domestic corporations in the United States at the end of 1997 was roughly $13 trillion. To see the phoniness of “transition costs” (the supposed net cost of privatizing the current Social Security system), consider the following thought experiment: As of January 1, 2000, the current Social Security system is repealed. To meet current commitments, every participant in the system will receive a government obligation equal to his or her actuarial share of the unfunded liability. For those already retired, that would be an obligation—a Treasury bill or bond—with a market value equal to the present actuarial value of expected future benefits minus expected future payroll taxes, if any. For everyone else, it would be an obligation due when the individual would have been eligible to receive benefits under the current system. And the maturity value would equal the present value of the benefits the person would have been entitled to, less the present value of the person’s future tax liability, both adjusted for mortality. The result would be a complete transition to a strictly private system, with every participant receiving what the current law promises. Yet, aside from the cost of distributing the new obligations, the total funded and unfunded debt of the United States would not change by a dollar. There are no “costs of transition.” The unfunded liability would simply have become funded. The compact between the generations would have left as a legacy the newly funded debt. How would that funded debt be paid when it comes due? By taxing, borrowing, creating money, or reducing other government spending. There are no other ways. There is no more reason to finance the repayment of this part of the funded debt by a payroll tax than any other part. Yet that is the implicit assumption of those who argue that the “costs of transition” mean there can be only partial privatization. The payroll tax is a bad tax: a regressive tax on productive activity. It should long since have been repealed. Privatizing Social Security would be a good occasion to do so. Should a privatized system be mandatory? The present system is; it is therefore generally taken for granted that a privatized system must or should be as well. The economist Martin Feldstein, in a 1995 article in the Public Interest, argued that contributions must be mandatory for two reasons: “First, some individuals are too shortsighted to provide for their own retirement,” he wrote. “Second, the alternative of a means-tested program for the aged might encourage some lower-income individuals to make no provision for their old age deliberately, knowing that they would receive the means-tested amount.” The paternalism of the first reason and the reliance on extreme cases of the second are equally unattractive. More important, Professor Feldstein does not even refer to the clear injustice of a mandatory plan. The most obvious example is a person with AIDS, who has a short life expectancy and limited financial means, yet would be required to use a significant fraction of his or her earnings to accumulate what is almost certain to prove a worthless asset. More generally, the fraction of a person’s income that it is reasonable for her or him to set aside for retirement depends on that person’s circumstances and values. It makes no more sense to specify a minimum fraction for all people than to mandate a minimum fraction of income that must be spent on housing or transportation. Our general presumption is that individuals can best judge for themselves how to use their resources. Mr. Feldstein simply asserts that in this particular case the government knows better. In 1964, Barry Goldwater was much reviled for suggesting that participation in Social Security be voluntary. I thought that was a good idea then; I still think it is. I find it hard to justify requiring 100 percent of the people to adopt a government-prescribed straitjacket to avoid encouraging a few “lower-income individuals to make no provision for their old age deliberately, knowing that they would receive the means-tested amount.” I suspect that, in a voluntary system, many fewer elderly people would qualify for the means-tested amount from imprudence or deliberation than from misfortune. I have no illusions about the political feasibility of moving to a strictly voluntary system. The tyranny of the status quo and the vested interests that have been created are too strong. I believe, however, that the ongoing discussion about privatizing Social Security would benefit from paying more attention to fundamentals rather than dwelling simply on the nuts and bolts of privatization. Reprinted with minor editorial changes from the New York Times, January 11, 1999, from an article entitled “Social Security Chimeras.” Reprinted by permission. Available from the Hoover Press is The Essence of Friedman, a volume of essays by the Nobel laureate economist. Also available is Facing the Age Wave, David Wise, editor. To The conventional wisdom regarding Social Security is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of how the system does—and does not—work. Nobel laureate and Hoover fellow Milton Friedman explains why it is time to end Social Security as we know it.
The journalist Michael Barone recently summed up the conventional wisdom about reforming Social Security: “The content of the reform is fairly clear—individual investment accounts to replace part of the government benefits financed by the payroll tax, later retirement ages, adjusted cost of living increases,” he wrote. And, he added, “suddenly the money to pay for the costs of transition is at hand, in the form of a budget surplus.” I have italicized “part” and “costs of transition” because they epitomize key defects in conventional wisdom. Social Security has become less and less attractive as the number of current recipients has grown relative to the number of workers paying taxes, an imbalance that will only get bigger. That explains the widespread support for individual investment accounts. Younger workers, in particular, are skeptical that they will get anything like their money’s worth for the Social Security taxes that they and their employers pay. They believe they would do much better if they could invest the money in their own 401(k) or the equivalent. But if that is so, why replace only part and not all of government benefits? The standard explanation is that this is not feasible because payroll taxes—or part of them—are needed to pay benefits already committed to present and future retirees. That is how they are now being used, but there is nothing in the nature of things that requires a particular tax to be linked to a particular expenditure. The link between the payroll tax and benefit payments is part of a confidence game to convince the public that what the Social Security Administration calls a social insurance program is equivalent to private insurance, in that, in the Administration’s words, “the workers themselves contribute to their own future retirement benefit by making regular payments into a joint fund.” Balderdash. Taxes paid by today’s workers are used to pay today’s retirees. If money is left over, it finances other government spending—though, to maintain the insurance fiction, paper entries are created in a “trust fund” that is simultaneously an asset and a liability of the government. When the benefits that are due exceed the proceeds from payroll taxes, as they will in the not very distant future, the difference will have to be financed by raising taxes, borrowing, creating money, or reducing other government spending. And that is true no matter how large the “trust fund.” The assurance that workers will receive benefits when they retire does not depend on the particular tax used to finance the benefits or on any “trust fund.” It depends solely on the expectation that future Congresses will honor promises made by earlier Congresses—what supporters call “a compact between the generations” and opponents call a Ponzi scheme. The present discounted value of the promises embedded in the Social Security law greatly exceeds the present discounted value of the expected proceeds from the payroll tax. The difference is an unfunded liability variously estimated at from $4 trillion to $11 trillion—or from slightly larger than the funded federal debt that is in the hands of the public to three times as large. For perspective, the market value of all domestic corporations in the United States at the end of 1997 was roughly $13 trillion. To see the phoniness of “transition costs” (the supposed net cost of privatizing the current Social Security system), consider the following thought experiment: As of January 1, 2000, the current Social Security system is repealed. To meet current commitments, every participant in the system will receive a government obligation equal to his or her actuarial share of the unfunded liability. For those already retired, that would be an obligation—a Treasury bill or bond—with a market value equal to the present actuarial value of expected future benefits minus expected future payroll taxes, if any. For everyone else, it would be an obligation due when the individual would have been eligible to receive benefits under the current system. And the maturity value would equal the present value of the benefits the person would have been entitled to, less the present value of the person’s future tax liability, both adjusted for mortality. The result would be a complete transition to a strictly private system, with every participant receiving what the current law promises. Yet, aside from the cost of distributing the new obligations, the total funded and unfunded debt of the United States would not change by a dollar. There are no “costs of transition.” The unfunded liability would simply have become funded. The compact between the generations would have left as a legacy the newly funded debt. How would that funded debt be paid when it comes due? By taxing, borrowing, creating money, or reducing other government spending. There are no other ways. There is no more reason to finance the repayment of this part of the funded debt by a payroll tax than any other part. Yet that is the implicit assumption of those who argue that the “costs of transition” mean there can be only partial privatization. The payroll tax is a bad tax: a regressive tax on productive activity. It should long since have been repealed. Privatizing Social Security would be a good occasion to do so. Should a privatized system be mandatory? The present system is; it is therefore generally taken for granted that a privatized system must or should be as well. The economist Martin Feldstein, in a 1995 article in the Public Interest, argued that contributions must be mandatory for two reasons: “First, some individuals are too shortsighted to provide for their own retirement,” he wrote. “Second, the alternative of a means-tested program for the aged might encourage some lower-income individuals to make no provision for their old age deliberately, knowing that they would receive the means-tested amount.” The paternalism of the first reason and the reliance on extreme cases of the second are equally unattractive. More important, Professor Feldstein does not even refer to the clear injustice of a mandatory plan. The most obvious example is a person with AIDS, who has a short life expectancy and limited financial means, yet would be required to use a significant fraction of his or her earnings to accumulate what is almost certain to prove a worthless asset. More generally, the fraction of a person’s income that it is reasonable for her or him to set aside for retirement depends on that person’s circumstances and values. It makes no more sense to specify a minimum fraction for all people than to mandate a minimum fraction of income that must be spent on housing or transportation. Our general presumption is that individuals can best judge for themselves how to use their resources. Mr. Feldstein simply asserts that in this particular case the government knows better. In 1964, Barry Goldwater was much reviled for suggesting that participation in Social Security be voluntary. I thought that was a good idea then; I still think it is. I find it hard to justify requiring 100 percent of the people to adopt a government-prescribed straitjacket to avoid encouraging a few “lower-income individuals to make no provision for their old age deliberately, knowing that they would receive the means-tested amount.” I suspect that, in a voluntary system, many fewer elderly people would qualify for the means-tested amount from imprudence or deliberation than from misfortune. I have no illusions about the political feasibility of moving to a strictly voluntary system. The tyranny of the status quo and the vested interests that have been created are too strong. I believe, however, that the ongoing discussion about privatizing Social Security would benefit from paying more attention to fundamentals rather than dwelling simply on the nuts and bolts of privatization. Reprinted with minor editorial changes from the New York Times, January 11, 1999, from an article entitled “Social Security Chimeras.” Reprinted by permission. Available from the Hoover Press is The Essence of Friedman, a volume of essays by the Nobel laureate economist. Also available is Facing the Age Wave, David Wise, editor. To order, call 800-935-2882. Milton Friedman, recipient of the 1976 Nobel Memorial Prize for economic science, was a senior research fellow at the Hoover Institution from 1977 to 2006. He passed away on Nov. 16, 2006. He was also the Paul Snowden Russell Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Chicago, where he taught from 1946 to 1976, and a member of the research staff of the National Bureau of Economic Research from 1937 to 1981. order, call 800-935-2882. Milton Friedman, recipient of the 1976 Nobel Memorial Prize for economic science, was a senior research fellow at the Hoover Institution from 1977 to 2006. He passed away on Nov. 16, 2006. He was also the Paul Snowden Russell Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Chicago, where he taught from 1946 to 1976, and a member of the research staff of the National Bureau of Economic Research from 1937 to 1981. order, call 800-935-2882. Milton Friedman, recipient of the 1976 Nobel Memorial Prize for economic science, was a senior research fellow at the Hoover Institution from 1977 to 2006. He passed away on Nov. 16, 2006. He was also the Paul Snowden Russell Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Chicago, where he taught from 1946 to 1976, and a member of the research staff of the National Bureau of Economic Research from 1937 to 1981. April 29 也谈文理科,一篇blog的回复。在美国的大学中,也有很多非常聪明的学生是读商学院和经济学的。这在国内被视为文科,实际上并不能这么看。比如商学院来说,要求很高的数学基础。学金融工程的基本是概率和随机过程,很多刚从工科转过来的学生也不一定吃得消。 在经济学研究更是如此。不看国外的,你就看看国内的,经济研究和管理世界两本核心期刊,里面有多少纯论述的内容,有多少模型和定量研究的内容。这些年大家流行用博弈理论之后,公式算法也非常复杂。金融学里面的风险分析方法,也不简单。 在国内一流大学的博士研究生方法课中,老师一个模型写上十来黑板的有的是,你能说他们都没有技术含量?有了统计和分析软件,文理科的差距越来越小。比如 matlab,现在文理科都再用,我们可以做最优化分析,理科也能算他们的东西。至于Eviews,SPSS这些软件,已经很普及了。我们现在运行的数据软件也很复杂,不是excel能完成的。 从每年高考状元的去向来说,也能说明一些问题。很多理科的高分的学生也选择了经济学院或商学院。 纯粹鄙视文科生的做法并不可取。 文科和理科是两种表述不同的逻辑表达方式,文科是以抽象的逻辑为主,而理科则用数学符号更严格规范的表达了一种逻辑。马克思的资本论里面没有多少符号,但是逻辑也很严密,同样能达到效果。当代国内经济学研究中,有一种非模型不取的倾向。有的学生为了表明自己的观点,可以用一句话说明白的非得用一堆公式或者一个模型表示,这种做法就会招致老师的批评。 文科误国论早已有之,但是中国的改革开放进程离不开这些搞政治学、经济学的研究者。有印象的人可以回忆1985年的“巴山轮”会议。1992年吴敬琏主编的《社会主义市场经济总体设计》,当时的研究者有哪些,他们现在都是干嘛的?而所谓当红的出镜率高的“经济学家”或者“学者”,这些人被批判是有道理的。当然,还有不少都是被素质低劣的记者所误读。不讲时间、地点、背景,拽起一句话来当噱头。但是,一些网友听风就是雨,不考虑因果关系,听见一句话不分青红皂白就痛骂经济学家,也是不可取的。你要看到,中国还有很多不为新闻所知的治学严谨的学者。中国的一部分政策背后,也有这些学者和学生的贡献。 关于治国,很早之前听过一段话。第一代是革命家,第二代是工程师,第三代应该是经济学者,以后应当是法学家,政治家,这一逻辑排序,不无道理。 April 12 论文定稿的后记。“风雨送春归,飞雪迎春到”。在这群芳吐艳、万象更新之际,我的博士学位论文就像一株小草,在料峭春光里顽强的从大地中探出了头。回顾博士论文的写作过程,回顾自己的求学之路,我深深地体会到:若没有众多老师、同学和亲友的支持和呵护,哪会有今日这棵“小草”的破土而出。 这篇论文的完成首先要感谢的是恩师董教授。2006年,我有幸成为恩师门下的一名弟子。博士就读期间,老师对我的悉心关怀和无微不至的照顾让我感激不尽。老师在学科领域中敏锐的直觉和洞察力,使我能够更多的发现问题。而老师在学业上我的指导,往往能拨云去雾,使我的研究能够“柳暗花明又一村”。老师在生活和其他方面对我的悉心帮助,让我倍感亲切。最为关键的是,三年来老师教导给我,发现问题、缜密思考的治学态度和宽厚为人、求真务实的人生态度,这些将使学生终生受益。在本篇论文的写作过程中,从论文的选题、构思到定稿都是在老师的悉心指导下完成的,正是他的不断指导,才能够让我不断发现问题,克服困难,完成论文的写作。 这篇论文基本上是在美国密歇根大学访学期间完成的。2008年秋,在老师的推荐下,我来到美国密歇根大学福特公共管理学院进行访问学习,在Ann Arbor,这个宁静的美国小镇中完成了毕业论文的写作。我的合作导师Sheldon教授,福特公共管理学院的Mary 教授和Kristin.教授对我的研究给予的大量的照顾。在我的论文写作过程中,他们对我进行了大量的指导,使我能够从中美两国的视角去审视和研究美国的社会救助政策,探求美国政府设计和制定社会救助政策的过程。 我需要感谢在博士就读期间和博士论文开题和写作期间给予我指导的各位教授。他们在我博士就读期间教给我的不仅仅是知识,更多是观察事物、研究问题的方法以及解决问题的各种技巧。他们的言传身教,都能够在本文中得到一定程度的体现。公共管理学院的各位教务老师, 感谢我的父母。我深知,我今天的一切都源于父母在背后的支持。他们给我的鼓励,成为我学习最大的动力。感谢我的女友和家人对我的支持和关爱,你们对我的关心和照料让我倍感亲切并增添了我不断拼搏的勇气和信心。 感谢在我人生成长之路上所有帮助过我的老师、同学和亲友,你们的帮助给了我不断奋斗,努力前行的勇气和信心。也感谢在我人生之路上使我遭遇过挫折的人们,因为这些挫折和不幸,让我变得更为顽强、坚韧和成熟。我会尽我所能,回报所有关心和爱护我的人! 我深知,博士生涯是我人生中的一步。接下来,我还会在更新的环境中面临更多的挑战。我一定切记老师和亲友的教诲,不怕困难,从容淡定在人生之路上走下去。
于美密歇根大学James and Anne Duderstadt图书馆 二〇〇九年四月十日 土鳖的悲哀。昨天和几个UM的留学生一起出去购物,随车聊了几句,突然扯到了国内外研究生的差别。
就有人说,国内研究生很轻松啊,我看他们没什么事情可做,不像我们,在UM有很多project,有很多有意义的课程,有很多大牌的教授,等等。我说,这些东西都是师傅领进门,修行在个人的事情。有的人很轻松,有些人也有很辛苦的。对方说:辛苦有什么用,有什么可以证明吗?当即把我给噎住了。是啊,我有什么可以证明吗?再一想,我学习就是为了给别人看,需要有证明吗?
回想自己的研究生生活,确实不堪回首。没有很好的科研条件,和老师见面的机会不多,指导的机会就更少了,当时自己也很绝望,前途一片渺茫。与世隔绝,自己给自己定下目标,每学期看100本书。老师给我的几句话让我读了一个学期的书,读哲学,读经济学,关心当下的热点问题。从张五常,茅于轼等大众读物看起,逐渐看到了杨小凯,张维迎,看到了国外的一些著名的经济学家的随笔和专业书,走上了正道。读了制度经济学,中国经济学思想史,看了n多关于国有企业改革历程的书和文章。有了积累,胸中有了丘壑,这样动笔写东西才有了底蕴,也为从研究生到博士的转型奠定了基础。才有幸结识了那么多中国体制改革领域的领导和专家。并为我现在的政策研究形成了积累。
美国的硕士培养和中国的有很大的不同。美国的硕士类似中国的专业硕士,很少的理论,大量的实务性的东西,所以培养速度相对很快,一年或一年半就可以完成。中国的硕士教育体制还没转变过啦,一部分还保留着专业研究的特点。注重理论课基础课的学习,所以培养时间相对较长。而到博士就不一样了,美国的博士需要4-5年,中国一般3-4年。差这一年的时间,绝大部分是在补理论课,这样,研究才更扎实,才可能做出研究成果出来。
我觉得,一些国内的硕士确实存在问题,但是并不必因此鄙视国内所有的土鳖。土鳖们也有很努力学习的强人,他们没有UM这么好的学习环境,也没有这么多的funding和师资,但是他们仍努力地看书和思考。而且根据专业的不同,他们中的少数也会很有成就。清华北大不说,单说人大的经济学院,商学院的一些学生除去语言因素,并不比mary商学院的学生差很大。这从毕业分配的情况就可以看出。不过,从上述洋鳖的一席话中,我也不难看出,该洋鳖并不是真牛,真正的大牛一般是不会说出这么肤浅的话来的。作为土鳖,我承认洋鳖的一些优势,承认我们和他们的差距,但是我也不能妄自菲薄,土鳖也有自己的优势,也就是对中国问题更为深刻的理解。任何事情都是相对的。拿我最喜欢的思想家哈耶克的一句话来做结尾吧,我知道这是一种“致命的自负!”
April 08 中国不高兴,很幼稚。最近这一段时间,《中国不高兴》这本书好像很火,因为有一个舰船知识的编辑在,也算和军事有关,我就下载了下来看了看。看了不到5分钟,看不下去了。
起初谈到1999年的砸馆,那时候我是大一,也去了。说现在的大学生比当年的我们更清醒,更理智,我不相信,因为两件事我都是亲历者。那时候,难道砸馆是不理智,抵制家乐福就是理智的?记得大一去砸馆,是有组织的。第一天下午全校学生干部大会,团委书记发的通知,让大家保持镇定,然后晚上7点钟集体在大教室收看的新闻联播,但是我们还小,没有什么斗争经验,不知道要出校门。实际上当时校门已经锁上,学生是出不去的。新闻联播之后,大字报就出来了,第一次写大字报,学校文体用品店的笔墨纸砚全部一扫而光,8点钟的时候,大字报已经在教学楼,大食堂,宿舍楼已经到处都散开了。当时没有相机,没法拍到当时激动人心的一刻。斗争经验不足,让我无法了解当时校外的情况。后来听人说,听到掉飞机的消息后,清华北大的学生已经沿着白颐路往天安门方向进发了。
我是第二天组织去的大使馆,当时各班还得报名,不能多去,每个班级只有10来个名额吧。8点来钟学校来了一批红皮大公交,直接拉到东直门外的使馆区。下了车就是美国大使馆所在地了,去的时候人声鼎沸,美国大使馆也已经面目疮痍,满地是石块,还有墨水瓶。人有赖着不走的,新来的喊口号,有唱国歌的,还有掰路牙子做石块准备往里砸的,附近居民还有支援破自行车的,也有兴奋地往里面看的。(我想其中很多人也在以后通过各种途径去了美国,可是回想这一幕是不是觉得好笑?)闹腾了几个小时,肚子也饿了,嗓子也哑了,没有水,也没有干粮,就赶紧走吧。最辛苦还是武警战士,挽成人墙守着。我想这个时候,心情最痛苦的是也是他们,一方面自己是军人,看着自己的战友牺牲。另一方面自己守卫的是击落战友的敌对国家的使领馆,面对的是热火朝天的爱国学生。学生也给他们说理,不行,执行命令是他们唯一的天职。我想如果一旦出现意外,人群冲进了美国大使馆,肯定会被学生干的一塌糊涂。
去砸馆是我们不理智吗,我想不是。而是这件事情太让人气愤,中国的人死了,飞机给打掉了,在自己的家门口,谁能忍得住。这和08年抵制家乐福当然不同。抵制家乐福就是理智的?我的启蒙经济学老师,现在北师大金融系主任贺利平就在砸馆之后说,抵制美国产品的行为是不理智的。家乐福也是一样,90%的员工来自于中国,99%的商品是中国货。抵制家乐福,就是抵制中国人自己。这是理智还是sb?
对于中国不高兴的其他观点,我也不敢苟同。所谓持剑经商理论。所谓中国没有大家,对美国金融危机肤浅的认识。
持剑经商表面上没什么错误,但是错误在不应该是一个研究军事的人提出的。孙子兵法怎么说的,出奇制胜。仗剑经商是欧美人的做法,玩了几百年了,我们现在去学,玩的过人家吗?经济学上有所谓的后发劣势理论,这个持剑经商,也是个后发劣势。看到一篇blog,讲温总理在最近几年的报告中都没有提“崛起”。可是这几年,我们干了什么,人均GDP过了2000刀,ppp计算过了3000刀,总量达到世界第三,离日本也就几千亿美元的差距,1-2年之内超过没太大的问题,谁敢说我们没有崛起。从军事实力上讲,作者肯定明白,海军去印度洋打海盗意味着什么?打海盗用得了7000吨的驱逐舰,用得上相控阵,用得上150公里的区域防空和280公里的反舰导弹,用得上水下跟去的黑鱼?谁说我们没有崛起。但是政府就是不提,仍旧示弱,这种战略上的推手,其智慧远非《不高兴》的作者能比。
感觉《不高兴》一书简直是给西方国家以口实,以压制中国的接口,是大大的帮了倒忙。这个世界,是越来越小,联系时越来越密。一个国家使性子,惹毛了其他人,他自己也活不下去。包括世界大佬,美国也是一样。中国还是个青春期的少年,不高兴了,那些大叔叔们也会还以颜色的。不如老老实实的做人,等到真正强大起来,不用不高兴,别人也得看着自己过日子。
April 07 医保改革已经起步,全民医保有待时日。早晨起来,读了医改报告的全文。仔仔细细的看了半个钟头。
总的感觉,进步很大,但是也有疏漏。
一,公立医院开民营化的倒车。
来到美国,发现美国医疗改革为啥那么难,东西都在私人手里,政府根本无法控制医疗资源,只能采取购买服务的方式。私人企业掌握定价权,造成了医疗价格奇贵。前不久,一个留学生生病,感冒花了540快钱,这价钱也不便宜了。好在有医保,只花了50快钱。美国30年代想搞医改的时候,不是不想国有化,而是东西都在私人手里,弄不成国有化。后来,英国一下把健康部门收编了,全部公务员,这才有了nhs。我们现在有了很多医疗资源,却要放手,搞民营化。好像自己手里有了资源却白白浪费,看着太可惜了。
二,公立医院应该利公。
公立医院不应该成为一个赚钱的机构,而是一个为公众服务的机构。美国有私营医院,也有国立医院,但是国立医院服务各方面大多赶不上私立,但就是价格便宜,低收入的人也能看得起。公立医院不能为了少数人,包括领导干部服务,应该主要为广大群众服务。如何做到公共医疗服务利公,是个很值得探讨的问题。
三,民营非盈利看起来很美。
牟利是私人资本唯一的动机,在我国搞民营的非盈利,并不是一件很容易的事情。教会医院?这个目前不太可能,估计病人没来,警察先来了。和尚开医院,我看没烧香盖庙求香火的多。我国从古代就没有多少非盈利的民营医院,现在弄,是不是有点超前了。我们到了这个地步了吗?
四,财政投入不明确,改革犹如纸上谈兵。
前一段写论文,发现一个数据,公立医院的收入,90%来自于医疗费用。全国的医疗总费用,一半来自于患者的自付费,英文叫out-of-pocket,很贴切,从兜里掏出来的。而医疗保障支出占34%左右,其余的是其他形式的公费医疗。公立医院的钱基本来自于自己,而病人又是自己从兜里掏钱。怎么会不发生看病贵呢?关键问题是政府的投入不到位。
这次改革,在政府投入上,写的完全是虚笔。一句加强xxxx了事,怎么干,完全没有写。地方财政苦乐不均,这次改革还是将主要的医疗责任给了地方,现在国家的财政收入中,三分之二归中央,三分之一归地方,而地方财政又有多少事情要干呢?美国也如此,但是美国有一套可行的政府间转移支付制度,联邦政府和州政府按照公式分摊,大家谁也说不出反对的理由。保障到位了,医疗改革才实行。对于这次医疗改革方案,我看这点完全没有做到。8500亿,怎么用,怎么分,分给谁,分到哪?都是问题,在这方面语焉不详,改革就是纸上谈兵。落实很困难。
五,行政监管太弱,行政审批太强
这次医改,又弄了一个基本药物目录,能不能上这个目录,需要药厂动脑子。政府的权力还是很大。怎么避免不贪污腐化,再出几个郑筱萸?药品集中招标采购,也是一个肥差,若是让中纪委查查各省招标处处长,我感觉会杀掉一批招标处的处长们。行政权力过大时现在改革的一个很致命的一个问题。但是在医改报告中,仍可发现强势政府的影子。一个监管性,服务性政府的影子太小了,太弱了。我们大力发展民营医院,监管跟不上,还是会乱套。
作为曾经为本次医改建言献策的参与者,亲身经历了医改起草的一部分过程,2年过去了,还是有些体会,写下来,看看大家的意见。
April 03 Willingness湖水是你的眼神 March 29 从中国制造到中国钞票G20举行在即,国内的金融方面也看出了试图改变现有世界货币格局的苗头。王岐山,周小川,相继发表文章,对金融危机和世界金融格局提出了自己的观点。其中最响亮的是调整现有的世界储备货币的格局。
确实,现在以美元为主的世界货币储备体系存在问题。美国并没有义务承担世界货币的职能。作为一个利己的国家,美国政府首先考虑的是适应本国的货币政策。目前美国的金融危机,信用瓦解,迫使美国不得不超发货币。但是显而易见的是这种做法讲输出通胀,导致其他国家的经济出现恶性的反应。中国就是很明显的例子。
在我国的GDP组成中,大约有50-60%的GDP直接或者间接用于出口,但是当我们用8亿条衬衫换回一架波音飞机时,我们发现,美元又不值钱了,现在波音要卖到10亿条衬衫的价格。在我们还没有形成主要以国内需求为主的经济格局时,被国外的汇率所掣肘会是长期面临的现象。
最好的解决途径就是建立独立于某一国家之外的比较稳定的储备货币,作为国际贸易和国际金融市场中的硬通货。
但是这一想法显然不会被西方国家所接受,因为他们的老百姓受不了。
美国和西方国家的人民享受着美元作为硬通货带来的种种便利,一旦美元的硬通货地位取消,必然导致美元购买力的下降,他在刺激经济的同时,也使美国消费者的口袋紧了,而消费习惯受棘轮效应转不过来,剩下的结果只能是政府下台,或者出现一场货币世界大战。这里的货币世界大战是像一战争夺殖民地,二战争夺世界政治霸权之后另一种世界霸权,从贸易硬通货角度的争夺。
美元作为世界货币,在使美国居民收益的同时,也使其他国家的居民承受了越来越大的发展鸿沟。
就拿我周边来说,上学路上途经的公交车站停了几辆自行车,大约经历了4-5个月,从来没有人动过。过了一个寒假,自行车没气了,车链子也锈掉了,但是还在那放着。显然是学生们扔掉了。这种自行车国内大概要1500元,美国这边要2-300美元。生产成本大约2-300人民币,但是这一资源被美国人白白浪费掉了。发展中国家只是挣到了工资,同时也耗费了资源。这就是强势美元给美国人带来的幸福。世界上最廉价的劳动力都被驱使,用于美国消费者的消费。而一旦美元不值钱了。在美国这个国家,老百姓是真敢拿着枪围攻政府的。
可是美国在得到廉价消费品的同时,发展中国家得到了什么。我们这只有美元,工人的就业,和严重的污染。生活在这里,周围没有任何工业区,河水清澈,绿地成荫,绿化率极高,小动物也不时出没,环境的宜居性很好。再看我们的北京,珠三角,长三角,一致内地,污染的程度狠严重,一些人也因此患上疾病,这些问题都是长期的,治理的成本也难以估算。但是我们得到什么?美元,可是它马上又不值钱了。我们最终得到的是什么?
中国制造,是现在一个流行的名词。中国成为世界上廉价工业品的代名词。中国也成为世界上最大的生产性国家,没有中国大量日用品的供给,很多国家会卡脖子。但是我们生产出,却没有享受。国内居民的消费水平,消费档次完全没有跟上发达国家,部分原因就在于货币的主动权不再我们这里,当人民币成为世界上的硬通货时。我们国家也就真正完成了从生产性到消费性国家的转移,再也不会出现8亿件衬衣换一架波音的尴尬场面。
March 27 fake海子,哈哈。从明天起,做一个幸福的人 从今天就要做幸福的人
喂马,劈柴,周游世界 喝酒,吃肉,网上游世界, 从明天起,关心粮食和蔬菜 从今天起,关心体重和血压 我有一所房子,面朝大海,春暖花开 我要找一所房子,面朝马路,摆摊设点 从明天起,和每一个亲人通信 从明天起,和每一个亲人飞信 告诉他们我的幸福 告诉他们我的颓废 那幸福的闪电告诉我的 那瓶底的泡沫告诉我的 我将告诉每一个人 我将告诉每一个人。 给每一条河每一座山取一个温暖的名字 陌生人,我也为你祝福 愿你有一个灿烂的前程 愿你有情人终成眷属 愿你在尘世获得幸福 我也愿面朝大海,春暖花开 March 24 也说说泌阳拆烈士陵园的事情。泌阳是我老家,虽然活了快30年了,一直没去过,但是还是对故土有深厚的感情。
谈到这次烈士陵园的事情,所有的意见都是一味的骂这些人没良心,又有人说会是政府的腐败。其实想想,这件事情还没有这么简单。
我是个党员,在入党教育期间,我经常听到的是,共产党没有特权也没有自己的特殊利益,维护最广大人民的根本利益就是共产党员的利益。作为我们党的高级干部,都是这么做的,比如,周恩来,邓小平,等很多的高级领导人都把自己的遗体火化,撒入祖国的大江大海,做到了把自己的一切献给了祖国和人民。这一点,表现了纯粹的共产党员的高风亮节。
但同时,我也看到,各级政府的丧葬管理也很严格。用句常用的话讲,就是死人不能跟活人争地。普通老百姓死了不能争地,那么烈士就有特权吗?烈士陵园,确实需要敬仰,也需要尊敬,但是面对国家的发展,纪念烈士的方法和方式也有多种。在现在这种社会风气下,我们不能简单直接说拆陵园就是不对。
作为共产党员,作为革命先烈,就是要为老百姓的利益牺牲一切,革命烈士需要纪念,但是不能因为烈士陵园影响阻碍了社会发展。这是我们在酒泉之下的烈士也不想看到的。
从公平的角度看,既然老百姓的坟政府可以平,那么烈士的墓没啥不能平的。因为共产党员没有特权。
烈士的伟大在于精神,而不在于其坟墓。纪念烈士,要纪念其品格和精神,而不是坟墓。我想,泌阳县的政府如果能建立一个很好的革命纪念馆,加强对烈士事迹的宣传,即使平掉了烈士陵园,也无可厚非。
March 17 zz,食指,相信未来
也谈大学生村官村官考公务员失败发疯 被父母锁铁笼两月,看到这个题目,我很气愤,也很无奈。我感到生气的不仅是他个人的悲剧,而是整个大学生村官群体,以及公务员劳动力集合(它不是市场)的问题,是行政管理效率的问题。
按照现行的大学生村官制度,可能会出现更多的这种现象。前不久,有村官自杀的消息,这又出来一个疯子,以后还会出现什么。我们是不是该对现行的村官政策进行反思?
中国的公务员从来没有进入劳动力市场。此前,我的一个老师这么说过。
同样,现行的村官政策也有不少问题?用最简单的供求方法来分析:
1.这些刚毕业的大学生,能否适应农村的基层工作?
2.农村的基层工作需要什么样的工作?
如果即充分又必要,当然可以确认大学生村官的价值,如果不满足,我们就要反思这一政策。
刚毕业的大学毕业生,在现行的大学教育制度中,缺乏充足的动手能力,思考分析问题的能力,他们基本没有实际工作经验,让他们去农村工作,他们会干什么?
其次,农村最需要的是哪些人,懂经营,会管理,能带头致富的,有组织管理领导能力的,懂政策,能够维护农民权益的。这些大学生会不会。
我们在制定这一政策的时候,想没想过这些事情。
最后,大学生必然有心理不成熟的,但是现行的制度对他们造成什么影响。在长期内,农村落后的状况无法改变,面临这一问题,有多少大学生能耐得住农村的寂寞,当他们的城市同学逐渐飞黄腾达的时候,他可能还是那个样子。
有多少人又心甘情愿但在农村一辈子。政府有没有考虑到他们的将来,怎么解决未来的生活。社会保障,子女教育,工资待遇,职业发展,这些能否跟上?
事实证明,当时的上山下乡政策并不成功,而我们又为啥再要重演一场当年的悲剧。
我的感觉,如果当村官可以。需要从那些刚进机关的公务员里选拔。第一,他们受过比较好的教育,第二,他们熟悉政府工作流程,会工作。第三,他们逐渐会工作,能适应农村的生活,且无待遇,编制,工资之类的后顾之忧。这样,才能真正为农村解决一些实际问题。才起到发展农村的作用。
March 10 说说繁体字。这回有政协委员提案恢复繁体字,结果媒体炒得沸沸扬扬的。我周围很多人也认为是脑残,我有不同的观点。
琴棋书画,是中国古代的四门艺术。小时候练毛笔字时,用简体写,怎么也不好看。后来还是照着字帖伤的繁体写,感觉写得好些。一些练字的大人说,毛笔字都是越简单越难写的。我自己写也有体会。就说广字,空心的,字就显得往一边沉。练字不精,就不再说了。
我估计好些说不理解繁体字的,估计是没练过字。而现在我的周围,写汉字写得很好的,却也没有以前多了。小的时候,家里人都说,写字能看出一个人的气质,所以我一向把练一手好字作为自己的目标,要求自己写字好。不管繁简,繁体字是练字的一个好途径。还有毛笔字。
再说,就是看一些古代的书籍,不认识些繁体字,确实不认识。前不久,看一些台湾的书,看起来就很费劲。以为是繁体字,认识毕竟比简化字生疏很多。中国文明维系了几千年,最主要的靠语言和文字。朝鲜以前都是拿中国字写历史,到现在很多韩国学生不认识汉字,读不懂自己的历史。看过30年代日本军人写给家里信,我估计认出了70%的字,当时我还没有学日文。现在再看日本报纸,我大概认识的也就2-30%的样子。这两个外国不说了,我们自己不能忘了自己的历史,不能不认识些繁体字。
看一些领导人的题词,都是使用的繁体字,也不都用简化字。
我的态度,官方可以使用简体字,毕竟学习方便。但是不能禁止繁体字,在一些学校,一些课程中,应当继续使用繁体字。比如,文言文教学,和古代的小说,诗歌,都是学习繁体字的好时机。不说非得让会写,但是你得让孩子们认识吧。
做科研有时候停不下来。毕业论文忙完了,但是还是觉得闲不下来。年在上课的时候,导师给我们讲美国大学的科研方式,开始没感觉,后来发现确实有研究不完的东西。
就拿我来说吧。其实做完了美国问题的研究,应该放松一下,手里还有05年全国1%人口普查的数据,于是就想再做一下中国的。
把中国的数据拿来一开,都是假的,农村24%的人说自己收入为0,城市有近45%的人说自己没有收入。这怎么可能的?我的数据都是选的16-65岁之间的,属于劳动年龄段,起码绝大部分是应该有收入的。
后来甩开1%,用马丁法开始测算。找到了最低营养标准,但是粮食产品的价格很难找到。最后费尽周折才找到基本农产品价格。但是区域之间的比较找不到。只能找到相应的指数。我发现,现有的统计资料不支持我发现各地的物价水平。北京市物价局连个网页都没有。做科研的,没有数,我们做什么,研究什么呢?
后来基本找到了36城市的平均物价,通过恩格尔系数模拟出个别城市的价格水平,但是要得到全国的价格水平,确实很难。只能模拟。
而提到城乡贫困标准的统一,数据是有,但是就是差别太大了,没法用。我找到农村居民食品消费货币化的程度,北京是97%,也就是说,北京农民的食品消费基本都是买来的。对城市来说,食品消费的货币化程度肯定是100%,但是北京城市居民每年食品消费是4700,农村只有1800多块。全国来看,城市是3200,农村只有1200,假设城乡的物价一致,那么城市比农村人多吃了2倍多的饭。假设物价不一致,人们吃的食品量类似,那么农村物价只有城市的五分之二左右。这个矛盾怎么解决?目前还不知道。所以,只能单独了算,不能按美国的方法直接套。但是单独算了后,直接的造成城乡分割,研究失去很大意义。这个矛盾解决不了。
有时候研究起来了,真的有听不下来的感觉。这也不是自吹自擂,就是想把这个问题搞清楚罢了。 March 09 论文可写完了~从上小学到现在,在学校呆了20多年了,人家无期徒刑才20年,我这一呆可就23个念头过去了。 无期,还加上3年。够死缓了。哈哈。 可不嘛,自从上了大学,就是一次又一次的给自己死缓。 读了硕士,又读了博士,现在是个老油条了。 今天晚上,AA的天气十分配合我的心情,风雨大作。 论文终于完成了,导师已经签字,进入答辩阶段。 经过了这么些年,毕业就得了这篇论文。 前后一共12万多字,加上附注之类,有13w7的样子。一共有190多页。 不管怎么样,告一段落了。读书20多年,终于快完了。 下一个30年,估计是在单位里度过的,等到我65岁退休的时候,不知道又会是什么样的一种心情。 学校的博士做完了。又要开是做小学生了。从社会小学开始。 March 07 小二郎,zz读书之前就会唱,马上就读完了书了,才觉得这歌唱的又朴实又深刻 小呀嘛小二郎 背着那书包上学堂 不怕太阳晒 也不怕那风雨狂 只怕先生骂我笨 没有学问无颜见爹娘 没有学问无颜见爹娘 小呀嘛小二郎 背着那书包上学堂 不是为做官 也不是为面子管 只为穷人要翻身 不受人欺负 哎不做牛和羊 不受人欺负 哎不做牛和羊 / March 02 问题并不在于失业,请看:北京地铁部分清洁工停工讨说法从昨天开始,执行公司对保洁人员制定的新工作制度,由之前的一天两班清洁员工作,改为一天三班。工作时间由之前的一天9小时改为8小时。这样看似合理,工作的时间少了,但活还是那么多,也没有了加班费,这就意味着收入会少很多。 在霍营站工作的保洁员小张称,之前他们每个月能拿到1200元左右,其中有二三百元是通过加班挣来的。如果按照新的制度,他们只能拿到900多元的工资。/p> 每天八小时工作制,是劳动法规定的,包括加班时间,劳动法都有明确规定,每天多少小时,每季度加班不能超过多少。但是对于低收入的职工来说,他们不讲这一套,他们只想多挣钱。 就像我此前的一篇文章中所写的那样,这是over employment,也是就业不充分的表现。特别是在二元劳动力市场中的低收入职工那部分,过度就业现象很明显,但是怎么办呢?世界上到现在也没有什么好法子。中国目前最严重的不是失业,而是严重的就业不充分。方法不在于就业政策,而在于经济体制,在于大量垄断影响了就业和效率。 February 26 两个新闻,谈谈感想。高校为贫困生推出2元套餐遇冷 女大学生不堪就业压力自杀 人活着是要有尊严的,这种明显低于市价的午饭受到贫困生的排斥,是必然的。明显的是好心办坏事的表现。这又让我想起社会救助法中,我国独创的资格审查政策。通过群众评议,民主监督的方式进行。群众评议,可以选出谁富,但是能选出谁穷吗?在市场经济中,是个谁穷谁丢人,大家正想致富的环境,这种评议只能让一些人忍气吞声的过日子。 当然很多人会说,死要面子活受罪,试想,面子是俗话,人们被人尊重才是重要的。穷人也有自己的尊严啊。所以西方国家的救助制度中,就没有这种方式进行。就是连很隐蔽的食品券,一些穷人都不愿意申领,原因就是觉得没有尊严。这是个问题。 解决这个问题的办法并不难,难得就是没人去想,没人去做。 就业压力大,是今年的普遍现象,别说大学生,就是我们也能感到凛冽的就业形势。目前我专业的一个也没有真正落实就业问题,我的工作也是没影子的事情,作为研究者,我们要问,到底是哪些行业就业困难,到底是在哪些地方就业困难。 答案当然有,就业最密集的是大城市,北京、上海,深圳等各省会城市。其次,求职者争相涌入的都是政府部门、外企和国字头的大企业。 为什么是这些地方,为什么使这些企业?这是不是个问题? 看到温总理说,我大学毕业就想到西部去搞研究。但是几十万去西部的大中专学生,出了多少科学家,多少企业家,多少省部级干部。而留在大城市的又怎么样。如果考虑收入的正态分布,哪个均值更高。理性的人当人会选择后者,来规避风险。 来到美国,我发现我们国家不是没有可建设的,不是没有可发展的,而是一些机制、体制,制约了我们人力资源的发挥。当一个满怀憧憬的大学生去西部的时候,他可能永远留在那,他的子女可能获得很差的教育环境,他的生活质量远低于东部地区。在没有实现发展机会的均等化之前,大学生求职难必将继续存在。现在新一轮的开发已经开始,但是排在前头的还是长三角,珠三角,环渤海。东北老工业基地没有,中部的武汉,长沙有一些,西部的重庆有一些,但广大的西北还是没有,这就是发展机会的不平等。 这两年,还有一个损招就是鼓励大学生创业,我觉得是痴心妄想。大学生补缺法理想,但是让他们创业是太天真的想法了,试看创业,有几个成功的吧。一把书本知识的情况下,去创业,无非是一条死胡同。
February 22 急时有用,zz第一条,跑路过程中的通讯
1,最大的忌讳,用手机
手机虽然作为很先进的通讯工具,方便了联络,但是在跑路途中,这个确是最大的安全隐患,一个电话可能你就会被KO掉了。可能有的朋友会说,你说的是因为手机卡是用你身份证办的吧,你可以办那种不用身份证办的电话卡啊,或者是用别人的身份证办的卡啊。问题不在这里,而是目前的手机定位情况,如果真的是犯了比较大的事情,一般你的手机肯定会被锁定的,包括你的通话和短信。至于定位,一般开机40秒之内定位你没什么问题。可能又有不懂的童鞋要问了,我又没有打电话,怎么会定位我呢?不知道你们有没有用过Googlemap的定位功能,或者是AGPS,这个给手机没有GPS功能的朋友带来了很多方便,可以实时定位你的位置……,这个的实现其实是基于手机信号发射站来定位的,多维定位法,一般精确度在300-400米范围内,你所处位置的基站越多,定位越精确,只要你手机开机,有信号,基站就会不断扫描你手机信号源,然后多维定位。所以……跑路过程中最好是不要使用手机通讯,否则你很快就会被锁定……。可能你在美国大片中经常看到有人打电话然后被锁定在某个建筑内,这当然不是危言耸听。我不知道他们是不是基于手机基站扫描定位,我想可能还有卫星定位技术在里面吧,不管怎么样,手机还是不用为妙
2,固定电话联系方式
很多人之所以被抓,可能就是因为实在想家,用固定电话给家里打了个电话。然后很快就被KO掉了。固定电话不具备移动性,一般打电话都会显示区号,然后根据这个区号,再去当地电信查,很快就能具体到某一不电话机。可能又有朋友要问了,我用街道旁边的IC卡公用电话,总找不到我吧,这个,实在的说,更好找到你的大致位置了,街边的IC卡公用电话都是分段号码,并且在电信里直接有分布图,根据你的电话号码,很快就能追踪到你所使用的那部电话所在的街道名称和位置……,这样你的位置还是会被暴露,给跑路带来风险。
总结:
跑路过程中的通讯解决方案
可以找到当地的中学生或者是去网吧找个,给他一些钱,让他打电话给另外个城市的朋友或者网友,当然,距离越远越好,然后通过他再转告给你想联系的人,如果为了更安全,可以多跳转几次。这样即使追查起来,想找到你的位置,可能在某个环节就会断掉。
第二条,跑路过程中的交通
跑路,当然是要跑了,跑的越隐蔽越好,越少人知道越好,越快也越好。所以交通是很重要。
交通无非就是海陆空,机场车站,码头,或者自己开车或者驴车马车牛车都可以。没有做不到,只有想不到。
首先,坐飞机跑路这个是首先要排除掉的,机场人员众多,安全检查有是最严密的。pol.ice叔叔安排的数量也是最多的。身份核查也是最严密的,身份证识别是和公共安全专家局的那个身份证识别系统是联网的,去机场坐飞机跑路等于自投罗网。聪明人一般都不会坐飞机跑路。
其次,坐火车跑路,这个也是很不明智的选择。火车站现在安检级别也升级了,火车站内监控众多。虽然说火车站人多,置身其中还是相对安全的说,但是门口中总有pol.ice叔叔在那里查身份证,看到可疑人员就会让你掏出身份证在电脑上查询一下(fuck,插播一条新闻,本人每次坐火车基本上都会被视为可疑对象查身份证),所以这个路线也不是很安全的,万一被pol.ice叔叔查身份证,那当场就挂了。不推荐
关于坐汽车跑路,汽车又分长途和短途汽车,长途汽车一般发车目的明确,距离虽然远,一般都是走高速公路,但是可能就在几个地方停,所以万一暴露始发地点,目的地很快就会暴露,缩小pol.ice叔叔的追捕范围。但是长途汽车暴露时间短,接触的人也少,这个可以适当考虑,当然,坐长途汽车,你可以不到达目的地下车,可以在某一路段下车,然后在路上拦一些跑长途的货车,搭个顺风车,有钱的话适当的给车主一些钱,他们还是乐意带你的,当然,这个要看人品和运气了。短途汽车,安检比较松一些,目的地短,经常换乘,迂回主动性比较强,但是由于暴露时间长,接触的人多,人多眼杂,也容易被发现,需慎重考虑……
另外一个走公路考虑的就是租车,找个人给他一些钱,去租赁公司租一辆车,走小路开,这样暴露的可能性就很小,安全系数高一些,这个是公路最佳出行方案……
走水路,全国跑路要走水路的地方貌似不多,内陆无非就是从重庆到珠江三角洲走水路,外围就是从广西,湛江,珠海,广州,青岛,南京,天津,海南,大连等城市坐船,不过这个危险系数高,非常,极度不推荐……
第三,跑路中的身份伪造
跑路过程中一定不能用自己的真实身份证,这样很快就会被pol.ice叔叔盯上的。在外面不管住店还是什么的,都是需要身份证的。至少要有三张或者三张以上身份证。至于身份证的来源,大致有两种。办证广告遍布全国各地,更有亚洲办证集团公司,每个城市的天桥下都有专门给人办证的,只要你想要的,没有办不出来的,50块钱一张身份证,200块钱办的比真的都还真,随便花点钱,都可以给你办出来一打。另外一个就是找你当地的贼头,这个需要一些关系,他们手头一般都有别人的身份证,花点钱,从他们手里买个两三张真正的身份证还不是什么问题的,当然,要找和你长的比较相近的,年龄差别不大的,不要连性别都搞混淆了。
第四,跑路过程中的住
跑路绝对是一个长期的过程,在这里肯定要考虑到住。你不能一直在路上跑啊,总有累的时候,需要一个落脚点。住当然是短期的住,跑路不可能在一个地方呆的时间太长,除非是绝对的安全,当然绝对的安全是不存在的。首先住有几点方案推荐
1.对于经济条件和安全性来考虑,3星级以上的宾馆推荐住,因为这些地方一般都是比较正规的地方。一般不会有pol.ice过去查房或者抓赌博P C什么的,星级越高,安全系数越高,有些地方的五星级宾馆一般都是go-vern-ment招待单位,除非有特殊情况,否则pol.ice叔叔是不会贸然去查房的。另外一个就是当地go-vern-ment招待所或者宾馆,这些地方,pol.ice也是避之不及的。安全系数更高。不过要注意尽量避开监控设备,最好带着帽子什么的进去,用假身份证开房。
2。就是大一点的洗浴中心之类的娱乐场所,这些地方,一般都是有社会背景的人开的,越大,后台越硬。这些地方一般都提供免费住宿,因为是洗浴的地方,只有入口等处有监控设备,其他的地方不会有的,进去洗浴又不需要身份证,降低了安全风险,何况里面吃喝洗住玩一条龙服务,在里面呆上十天半个月,没人会管你的,不过建议还是不要常呆,否则引起怀疑,会带pol.ice过来找你的。
3.找一些农家乐,现在的很多农家乐都提供住宿服务,当然农家乐里面不会有监控什么的,管理上虽然登记但是和其他地方相比,还是要松懈的多,pol.ice也一般不会没事跑那么远去查房,在里面住上三五天,还不是什么问题,何况农家乐一般都远离市区和农村,信息交流不是那么及时,安全性相对较高……
4,一些小旅馆之类的不推荐入住,因为这个会经常被pol.ice叔叔查房,另外人多眼杂,安全系数极度不高,不过学校周围的小旅馆相对来说安全一些,因为毕竟里面都是开房的学生居多。pol.ice叔叔也是心知肚明,除非是缺钱花了或者是学校联手想去查房,否则一般不会去的,可以考虑短期入住。
5,最落魄最省钱的住,可以考虑和流浪汉或者拾荒者住在烂尾楼或者桥洞下面,一般城市都有烂尾楼,里面一般都聚集这流浪汉或者拾荒者。这里一般情况下pol.ice是不会清查的,何况一般的烂尾楼外面都是大门紧锁。突然多出来一两个陌生人,他们也不会过多关注,只要你不和他抢地盘,他是不会找你麻烦的,也没人想招惹麻烦,所以在那里呆上十天半个月,相对来说还是比较安全的,这种方式推荐落魄期住……
第五,关于隐
古人云,大隐隐于市。看来古人也明白,真正的高手都是隐藏在市井中的。所以我们也不可避免,遵循古训。目前来说,人员管理混乱的地方就是建筑工地之类的地方,因为建筑啊工地人员流动大,登记管理上也有很多薄弱环节,拿着假身份证出去登记一下,基本上就可以在里面干活了。大一点的建筑工地可能会在一个地方呆上一年多,然后再转战其他地方。pol.ice叔叔不可能每天没事就往建筑工地上跑,至于工程项目组的他们最多也就是知道包工头的人数和名字,至于包工头下面有多少人,恐怕只有包工头自己清楚,也就是在开工和发薪水的时候清点一下人数。所以相对来说,还是比较安全的,另外一个工地上的人都是来自五湖四海的,没有谁会问起谁是干嘛的。
切忌往农村跑,不要以为农村偏远就安全了,其实这个观念是错误的。至少来说,现在在偏远的农村,都是和外界有联系的,很多都是几辈子土生土长的原生居民。突然多了一个陌生人,这个都是他们茶余饭后的谈资。农村人爱扎堆聊天,时间长了这些消息会传的很远,很可能就会传到当地pol.ice叔叔的耳朵了。地方再偏远,也是party的管辖范围,有村支部之类组织的说,很快就会暴露身份。
另外一个地方就是,矿山,林场之类的。矿山我就不多说了。云南,陕西,山西,河南,内蒙古,四川都有煤矿或者其他矿产,当然,最好的是隐于煤矿,这个一只脚踏进阎王殿的职业,内蒙古或者平顶山的露天煤矿就不要考虑了,这样隐不住,会露出狐狸尾巴的。最好就是往山西或者陕西跑,小煤矿众多,矿主不会把统计名单送到公共安全专家局的,除非他想关门大吉。人数报的越少越好,这样万一出了事故死人了,可以隐瞒死亡人数,减少麻烦。也正符合了你隐的条件,不过你要做好心理准备,不是什么非在这里隐不可的情况,就没必要来这里拿生命开玩笑,毕竟你跑路的目的也是为了活命或者其他的。小命都没了,还谈什么隐……
林场也会招一些临时工人,这些也不会统计上报的公共安全专家机关的,短期的隐,在那里干个半年几个月的,不会有什么问题的。适合短期的隐……,这个适合往东北跑,大兴安岭那边适合隐,如果运气好,隐一辈子不是什么问题。
渔港码头就不要考虑什么隐了,因为海事局和海警会不定期的走访什么的,人员普查的比较严格,很容易被pol.ice叔叔抓现行…… |
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